Fuel budgets for Canadian fleets have taken a beating this year, but the pain has not landed evenly across the country. A look at national numbers alongside Ontario and British Columbia shows just how much geography matters when you are trying to forecast next quarter's fuel line item. If your routes cross provincial borders, or if your procurement team is still working off last year's assumptions, the gap between what you budgeted and what you are actually paying at the pump is probably bigger than you think.
The National Picture: A Volatile First Half
Canada's national average diesel price started the year at C$1.50 and climbed to a peak of C$2.20, a jump of 47%. As of the latest reading, diesel is still sitting right at that peak. Gasoline followed a similar arc but has pulled back more since topping out. Regular gasoline began January at C$1.48, peaked at C$2.08 (up 41%), and has since eased to C$1.69.
That divergence matters. Gasoline prices have given fleets some relief in recent weeks, but diesel, the fuel that actually moves freight, has not budged from its high. For any operation running a heavy-duty or medium-duty fleet, that is the number that should be keeping procurement teams up at night, not the number quoted on the sign outside a gas station.
Ontario vs. British Columbia: A Tale of Two Provinces
Break the national figures down by province and the picture gets more interesting.
Ontario started the year with diesel at C$1.53 and gasoline at C$1.39, both below the national average. Diesel peaked at C$2.12 (a 38% increase) and has since softened slightly to C$2.10. Gasoline peaked at C$1.98, a steeper 43% climb, before retreating to C$1.62. Ontario fleets have seen some cooling on both fuels, though diesel remains stubbornly close to its high.
British Columbia tells a rougher story. Diesel opened the year at C$1.51 and rose to C$2.27, a 51% increase, the steepest of the three data sets here. Unlike the national and Ontario figures, BC's diesel price has not come down at all. The latest reading still sits at C$2.27, exactly where it peaked. Gasoline in BC climbed from C$1.47 to a peak of C$2.06 (up 40%) and has eased to C$1.83, still noticeably above where Ontario and the national average landed.
For fleet managers running cross-border or interprovincial routes, this spread is not academic. A truck that fuels in Ontario and again in BC on the same run is absorbing two very different cost realities, and averaging them out in a spreadsheet can mask real regional exposure. If your fleet leans heavily on BC lanes, diesel has simply not given you the breathing room it has given operators elsewhere in the country.
What's Behind the Volatility
None of this is happening in a vacuum. Oil prices have extended their gains recently as markets stayed skeptical that a proposed deal to restore shipping through the Strait of Hormuz would actually materialize. The continued deadlock between the United States and Iran has kept a floor under prices even as broader financial markets waited on U.S. inflation data. Add to that a drone attack on a power plant at Libya's Zawiya oil export terminal, which points to ongoing disruption at one of the country's key export hubs, and you have a supply picture that remains genuinely fragile.
None of these events are Canadian in origin, but Canadian pump prices do not exist in isolation from global crude. When traders price in the risk of a shipping chokepoint closing or an export terminal going offline, that risk gets passed through the supply chain and eventually shows up on a fuel receipt in Mississauga or Surrey. The dollar's own volatility, with more swings expected around inflation data and the ongoing Middle East conflict, adds another layer of uncertainty to what a litre of diesel will cost a Canadian buyer versus a U.S. one, since crude is priced in U.S. dollars globally.
There is a longer-term thread here too. Bank of America's recent pledge to commit $250 billion toward AI and energy infrastructure, following similar moves by other major banks, signals that capital is flowing into energy systems at a scale that will shape supply and pricing dynamics for years, not just quarters. That is cold comfort for a fleet manager trying to lock in next month's fuel spend, but it is a reminder that the current volatility is tied to structural shifts in energy investment, not just a temporary spike that will fully unwind on its own.
Why Diesel Is the Number That Matters Most
Gasoline gets more headlines because it affects more households, but diesel is the fuel that determines whether a trucking or delivery operation hits its margins. The national and provincial figures above make clear that diesel has been slower to retreat from its peak than gasoline in every region covered here. In BC, it has not retreated at all.
That stickiness has a real explanation. Diesel demand is less elastic than gasoline demand. Commercial freight does not stop moving because prices rise, and diesel refining capacity in North America has been under pressure for years, which limits how quickly supply responds to price signals. When crude prices climb on geopolitical risk, diesel tends to feel it fast and hold onto the increase longer than gasoline does.
For a fleet manager, this means the gasoline price on the sign outside a station is not a reliable proxy for what your diesel costs are doing. You need to be tracking diesel specifically, by province, and building your fuel budget around that number rather than a blended average.
Budgeting Through Continued Uncertainty
Given the swings documented above, a fleet running on a fixed annual fuel budget set back in January is almost certainly off target by now, in some cases significantly. Ontario diesel users are closer to their original numbers than BC operators, but even a 38% swing from budget baseline is enough to force uncomfortable conversations with finance. This is exactly the kind of environment where a fixed-price fuel supply agreement earns its keep. FuelAnchor locks in a maximum price per gallon for your fleet, so when diesel spikes the way it has this year, your cost ceiling stays put and your finance team can plan around a known number instead of chasing a moving target.
Practical Steps for Fleet Managers Right Now
A few things worth doing this quarter, regardless of which province your fleet operates in:
- Pull your fuel spend by province, not just as a national total, so you can see where the real cost pressure is concentrated.
- Compare your actual diesel spend against your original budget baseline and flag the gap for finance before it becomes a quarter-end surprise.
- Watch diesel separately from gasoline in your reporting. The two are diverging enough right now that a blended fuel index will hide more than it reveals.
- If your routes run through British Columbia, build extra margin into your fuel forecasts given how little relief diesel prices there have shown compared to Ontario and the national average.
- Revisit any supply agreements or budget assumptions set earlier in the year. A number that looked reasonable in January may no longer reflect the market you are operating in.
Geopolitical risk in the Middle East and North Africa is not resolving on a timeline anyone can predict, and Canadian pump prices will keep reacting to it. The fleets that come out ahead this year will be the ones that stopped treating fuel cost as a fixed line item months ago and started treating it as the variable it actually is. Pull your provincial numbers this week and see where your real exposure sits.